Crypto Quarterly Outlook
- Jay Wolf
- Mar 3
- 4 min read
Updated: Mar 3
Crypto is at a clear inflection point at the start of the year. With the new Trump administration and its grandiose plans for the crypto market, this cycle is definitely one to watch. Technicals are an important factor here and I will be diving into the charts to draw some interesting conclusions.
ETH
So I am looking at this chart on ETH and I can clearly see these 2 scenarios, if we are to have some type of momentum going. These 2 levels at monthly are key on how we are going to deliver inside of them. So far the trigger has been pulled for a bearish scenario here at monthly with the closure below the upper BPR. I want to see it be treated as resistance if we are to go lower. This is not the final trigger though with one more layer of confirmation to be needed for us to be continuing lower. That ultimate trigger is the closure below the quarterly level.
The final technical trigger is the closure below the quarterly gap. One month left till close. A body closure below the gap low and the bearish scenario is triggered.
As I was writing here breaking news from the Trump admin. Crypto reserves will be made under the news directive.
The reserve will include fantastic five: BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA.
Major month for crypto ahead. Fundamentals are there. Lets watch the technicals.
BTC
Bitcoin topped in JAN with the sweep of 2024s high. Breakout traders were trapped at the swing. As of now, locally, price is between 2 monthly levels, with resistance being the OB and support the gap. I do see price drawing towards that lower balanced level which is the 2021 high. That would make enough for a Q2 mover.
Once again here is key how we close at quarterly. The rebalancing lower is in cards with a bearish doji.
And the bullish scenario though I am not leaning on it. Flipping here would mean an aggressive expansion for Bitcoin. Expected large ranges for sure.
XRP
Ripples XRP is consolidating more or less at the top. Previous years high has been swept and what it currently does is sit inside a range between 2 weekly gaps that act both as a support and resistance.
What I can say is that it has still massive discount to cover and premium has already been met. Not so sure here about what price would do as I am of ETH but I would want to leave the high intact if we are to go into more discount. Premium weekly resistance gap has to be kept in such case.
There is an outstretched scenario where we have a sweep of the quarterly candle and drive back inside the range. Currently the only indicatives locally remain the 2 weekly gaps on both sides.
If Bitcoin breaks the range and expand then XRP should follow as well.
SOL
For Solana the drop was extremely aggressive. Discount price are not needed more than this as the rebalancing already happened with the tap of 2023 high. If we are to be bullish only premium price from here now on should be expected. No need to drive lower. Also monthly inversion keeping price as support.
As of now if we close a bearish quarter I am animating this scenario. Multiple weekly levels to look at locally. No need for more premium that the MT of the weekly OB. Lower target is clear if we continue the bearish OF.
A lot has to happen here to continue higher. But it is still plausible but on the lower probability side. This low should not be violated as it is already rebalanced a yearly level. Candle at quarterly though should flip as bullish to move the odds into a longs continuations scenario.
This concludes this short analysis. There are key triggers that are being weight in this month.
The closure on ETH at the quarterly candle is the most important from my point of views.
A closure below that key gap would mean more blood for ETH and therefore for the rest as I think discount will be sought more. SOL is also looking extremely bearish at the weekly time frame but has to confirm orderflow from here now on to indicate that discount is being targeted.
BTC and XRP on the other hand are the other two that look more bullish between the coins. There is still room for discount on both of them but price action leans more towards a bullish case scenario. Retracement is plausible and if it would do so, expect less blood shed than the first two.
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